Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19)

The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has the potential for extraordinary consequences. In this special dossier we assess its impact at distinct levels and areas, and the global challenges of managing this crisis.

En español

Context

The COVID-19 pandemic has the potential for extraordinary consequences at all levels. Like the international terrorism crisis 20 years ago and the euro crisis a decade ago, it highlights the relevance of global governance and European integration to our daily lives. Spain is among the countries with the highest initial incidence of the virus, underlining the need for a rigorous, multidisciplinary approach aligned with the responses of other countries, the European Union and international organisations like the WHO and the G20. This Elcano Royal Institute special dossier aims to contribute to this objective.

The challenge in terms of health alone is enormous: it is necessary to prevent the unchecked spread of the virus, coordinate national responses, reduce the impact on the normal functioning of hospital systems and search for a vaccine. After dealing with the immediate human crisis, we must also address the trust of highly interconnected populations with a level of awareness that allows them to evaluate the scientific–medical and political capacity to respond to pandemics like COVID-19.

However, health is not the only priority. We also need to tackle the major economic challenges posed by this black swan event. The coronavirus will cause direct damage due to the sharp fall in demand and supply-side disruption, the consequences of which will depend on the duration of the crisis and how it is managed at every level (international, supranational and national). Effective leadership capacity at these three levels is critical. While there is the chance to emerge stronger, the pandemic comes at a critical juncture for multilateralism and integration. We do not envisage a recession like 2008–2013 but there will be an impact on employment, with all the associated consequences for social cohesion and politics. Failure to respond correctly may even jeopardise the sustainability of the monetary union once again, although there is also the potential for it to emerge stronger. Moreover, there are various economic areas in which the effects of the crisis could be positive, such as technology, mobility and energy dependence.

It will also have an impact on security and freedom. Like many countries, in Spain, it will test the capacity to reinforce the emergency system, as well as the continuity of supply chains and measures to restrict mobility (which may be extreme and are already affecting the country internally, as well as the Schengen area and global migration flows). It is also essential not to overlook the importance of managing public alarm and the need for a strategic communications policy that covers the population as a whole and combats the disinformation and rumours spread on increasingly globalised social networks. This is not only a matter of the effectiveness and legitimacy of the health system or European economic governance but also of national security.

Finally, we can expect geopolitical repercussions in the context of the growing rivalry between the USA and China, and even deglobalisation (the erecting of barriers to the movement of people and factors of production has the potential to reduce trade and travel) and more distrust between people or governments. At the regional level, there is the risk the crisis could exacerbate Euroscepticism. The EU’s ability to step up to the challenge and the ability of government to play a proactive role in the response will be critical to safeguarding the interests and values widely shared by Spanish and European society.

Analysis

Highlight

Which multilateralism for Cyber Norms?

Raquel Jorge-Ricart · 29 May

Highlight

Silicon Valley, in remote mode

Andrés Ortega · 26 May

Destacado
Destacado
Destacado

Dos instantáneas sobre las noticias del COVID-19

Ángel Badillo Matos · 19 May

África

África más sola que nunca

Jesús A. Núñez Villaverde · 20 April

África

Claves del impacto económico del coronavirus en África

Ainhoa Marín Egoscozábal · 14 April

América Latina
América Latina

AMLO y el COVID-19

Carlos Malamud · 17 April

América Latina

Brasil, Jair Bolsonaro y el COVID-19

Alexandre Fuccille · 17 April

América Latina
Asia

La UE, ASEAN y el COVID-19

Emilio de Miguel Calabia · 21 May

China

The virus war with China

Andrés Ortega · 12 May

China

COVID-19 y la imagen de China en España

Mario Esteban · 23 April

Ciberseguridad
Communication
Comunicación

COVID-19: una gripe sin gentilicio

Ángel Badillo Matos · 21 April

Communications

Infodemic and mediademic

Andrés Ortega · 31 March

Cooperación
Cooperación

La OMS en su encrucijada

José María Martín-Moreno · 11 May

Economía

El futuro de la globalización

Federico Steinberg · 21 May

Economía

Tormenta sobre la globalización

Enrique Fanjul · 14 May

International Economics
International Economics
Energy & Climate

A look at the geopolitics of the European Green Deal

Gonzalo Escribano, Lara Lázaro Touza & Esther Lence Tallón · 7 May

Energy & Climate
Energía
Energía

Pascua petrolera

Gonzalo Escribano · 15 April

Energía y Clima
Energía y Clima

Energía, clima y coronavirus

Gonzalo Escribano y Lara Lázaro Touza · 27 March

Spain

Is Spain doing well or badly in its response to COVID-19?

Carmen González Enríquez · 24 April

Estados Unidos
Estados Unidos

EEUU: ¿habrá elecciones el 3 de noviembre?

Carlota García Encina · 15 April

Estados Unidos
Estados Unidos

EEUU frente al COVID-19

Carlota García Encina · 23 March

Europa

Pacto verde y estado de derecho en la UE

Carlos Closa Montero · 22 April

Europa

La UE ante la emergencia y el día después

Enrique Feás y Gonzalo García Andrés · 16 April

Europa

Las lecciones para Europa del coronavirus

Enrique Feás · 16 March

Europa

COVID-19: La Unión Europea se juega su credibilidad

Jesús A. Núñez Villaverde · 16 March

Europe
Género
Género
Global
Global

Digital truce at times of post-crisis

Raquel Jorge-Ricart · 27 April

Global
Global

Violencia a la sombra de la pandemia

Jesús A. Núñez Villaverde · 6 April

Global

El mundo de mañana

Emilio de Miguel Calabia · 1 April

Global
Global

Lecturas para tiempos de desolación

Antonio R. Rubio Plo · 19 March

Global

El coronavirus y la incertidumbre “Knightiana”

Miguel Otero Iglesias · 18 March

Global

The deglobalisation virus

Andrés Ortega · 17 March

Mediterranean & Middle East
Migraciones

La inmigración en los tiempos del virus

Carmen González Enríquez · 13 May

Radicalización violenta y terrorismo

¡Castigo de Alá! El movimiento yihadista global ante la crisis del COVID-19

Sergio Altuna Galán y Carola García-Calvo · 21 April

Radicalización violenta y terrorismo

COVID-19 y bioterrorismo

Fernando Reinares · 23 March

Radicalización violenta y terrorismo
Seguridad y Defensa

COVID-19: ¿amenaza u oportunidad para la OTAN?

Carlota García Encina · 16 April

Security & Defence
Spain

Spain in times of the coronavirus

William Chislett · 27 March

Spain

Inside Spain (special edition)

William Chislett · 25 March

Events

Presentación de Elcano Policy Paper: “Implicaciones del COVID-19 para la Defensa” (1/6/2020).

Virtual Roundtable: The EU response to COVID-19 crisis and its impact on the future of the Union (14/5/2020).

Virtual Roundtable: Coronavirus and the Maghreb: Challenges to stability and reform (7/5/2020).

Debates Elcano: El impacto del COVID-19 en América Latina: un balance sanitario, político y económico provisional (30/4/2020).

Mesa redonda virtual: El impacto del coronavirus en los países árabes (22/4/2020).

Virtual Roundtable: Covid-19 and the Chinese and Russian disinformation campaigns (21/4/2020).

Seminario digital: COVID-19 e Influencia de España en Europa (20/4/2020).

Mesa redonda virtual: La crisis del COVID-19 y su impacto: respuestas y escenarios futuros (1/4/2020).

Documents & resources

OMS / WHO: Rolling updates on coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

IAEM: Global COVID-19 Resources & News.

ONU / UN: Global Humanitarian Response Plan for COVID-19.

Comisión Europea / European Commission: Respuesta al coronavirus / Coronavirus Response.

OCDE / OECD: Tackling coronavirus (COVID‑19). Contributing to a global effort.

GHS: Global Health Security Index.

International Crisis Group: COVID-19 and Conflict: Seven Trends to Watch.

European Parliamentary Research Service: Coronavirus (COVID-19) [What Think Tanks Are Thinking].

Global Trade Alert: The Trade Policy Dimension. Tackling Coronavirus.

Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU): Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases.

The COVID Tracking Project: The COVID Tracking Project web.

Worldometer: COVID-19 Coronavirus Outbreak.

Elcano’s press dossier