Donald Trump concluded the first year of his presidential term with low levels of popular approval, facing difficulties in achieving many of his election promises, and with his country in clear retreat from the international arena. In this analysis we assess how the world has responded to his policies and then look ahead at what to expect in 2018.
También disponible en españolMore than a year has passed since Donald Trump became President of the US, surprising much of the world and many of his own supporters. Since then we have witnessed a very unconventional presidency, with a combative and unpredictable chief, a ‘ground breaker’ in some senses, but also very ignorant of the very essence of politics. He has directed the country with executive orders and tweets. At the frequent appearance of Trump’s tweets, both domestic and foreign audiences have learned to pause for a breath of air and to wait for the ‘interpretation’ to come from the President’s staff.
He has confronted the senators of his own party even though he needs their votes. He has been accused of obstruction of justice, as an investigation is underway to determine whether Trump conspired with Russia somehow in the 2016 elections, feeding the debate over his possible impeachment. He has made enemies among his allies, and insulted and contradicted members of his own team, sending confusing messages often inconsistent with his own policies. Meanwhile, a series of natural disasters have also shaken the country, bringing into sharp relief his own lack of empathy.
He has energetically pursued his campaign promises and, in some cases, has registered important achievements: as with the passage of the largest tax cut in the country’s history, the publication of the National Security Strategy, the appointment of Neil Gorsuch as Supreme Court judge, as well as the naming of a series of young and conservative judges to serve on federal courts. Although he has failed to repeal and replace Barack Obama’s healthcare legislation, known colloquially as ‘Obamacare’, or to build the Mexican border wall, Trump has had relative success with respect to immigration. He has also followed through on his commitment to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP) and taken the first steps toward revising NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Association).
His public approval ratings continue to be the lowest in the history of the country, but Trump maintains intact the confidence of a large part of the electorate that applauds his ‘authenticity’. He continues to appear at rallies in cities around the country as if the campaign were still on.
Despite his style, his tweets, his attacks on US democratic norms –like freedom of the press and respect for the courts– during the first year of his term the US constitutional system has done the job for which it was conceived: that is to say, to put into play the time-honoured mechanism of ‘checks and balances’.
After Trump’s election victory, there were many forecasts of forecasts of political volatility for 2017, above all in the realm of international cooperation, one of the best ways for countries of the world to engage in international affairs. The new President has promised to ‘make America great again’ by renegotiating international agreements that he considers unfair and against the interests of his country, and by questioning the value of long-standing international institutions. From January 2017, the policy of ‘America first’ began to lead the country into a slow abdication of its global leadership role and even its role as leader of the free world. All US Presidents since World War II have put the US first, pursuing American interests and prioritising military power, but they have also understood that the values and culture of the US –its soft power– constituted one of the principal ingredients of its global influence.
Today the statistics suggest that Americans are tired of carrying the burden of global leadership and of supporting democracy internationally, of promoting free trade and of defending their allies. Although they want a cheaper foreign policy, they also have difficulties accepting the decline in influence that comes with it.
Contrary to the expectations of a significant shake-up with the arrival of Trump, international and multilateral cooperation on key issues like climate change and migration carry on, even as the US withdraws. Furthermore, some countries like China and France have pushed ahead with the goal of possibly occupying the leadership vacuum left behind by the gradual withdrawal of the US.
The world has made some important progress, despite the counter currents generated by Trump. The most important came with the announcement that the US would withdraw from the Paris Agreement; this prompted a unanimous response from the rest of the world’s countries to carry on in the fight against climate change. Trump’s protectionist rhetoric has not stopped global trade from increasing in 2017, according to the IMF, or the proliferation of recent trade accords between various international actors. Washington’s decision to not certify the nuclear deal with Iran –a gesture with little real meaning for the moment– is affecting US diplomacy, and it has undermined the country’s credibility by transmitting the message that the US is an unreliable partner that does not meet its commitments. The formal recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel also provoked indignation in many countries and led to protests, if limited. The vote in the General Assembly of the UN on 21 December 128 in favour and nine against (with 35 abstentions), approved a resolution of condemnation of that US decision, which symbolises the isolationism toward which the Administration is driving the country.
